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Story Point Estimation: The Science of Predictable Software Delivery

How Xamun xDD uses automated relative estimation to deliver transparent, accurate project planning

What Are Story Points?

Story points are an abstract unit of measurement used in Agile software development to estimate the effort required to complete a user story or task. Unlike traditional time-based estimates (hours or days), story points consider multiple factors:

Complexity

How technically challenging is the work? Does it require new skills or integration with unfamiliar systems?

Effort

How much work is involved? Consider coding, testing, documentation, and review time.

Uncertainty

How much is unknown? Are there risks, dependencies, or unclear requirements?

Key Insight: Story points focus on relative sizing rather than absolute time, making estimates more accurate and less biased.

Why Story Point Estimation Works

Research and real-world experience show that story points deliver better results than traditional time-based estimates:

Encourages Team Collaboration

The estimation process involves the entire team, ensuring diverse perspectives are considered and leading to shared understanding.

Improves Accuracy

By focusing on relative sizing ("Is this twice as complex as that?"), teams provide more accurate estimates than guessing hours.

Promotes Flexibility

Teams can adjust workload based on capacity and challenges without the pressure of rigid time commitments.

Accounts for Uncertainty

Story points inherently consider complexity, risk, and unknown factors—providing a more comprehensive assessment.

Faster Estimation Process

The estimation process involves the entire team, ensuring diverse perspectives are considered and leading to shared understanding.

Reduces Pressure & Bias

The estimation process involves the entire team, ensuring diverse perspectives are considered and leading to shared understanding.

Why Fibonacci Numbers?

Agile teams use the Fibonacci sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, etc.) for story point estimation because it reflects a fundamental truth about complexity:

1

2

3

5

8

13

21

The Math Behind the Method

Increasing Uncertainty: As tasks grow larger, uncertainty and complexity increase non-linearly. The widening gaps in Fibonacci numbers (1→2 is +1, but 8→13 is +5) reflect this reality.

Forces Meaningful Discussions: The sequence prevents false precision. Teams can't agonize over whether something is a 7 or 8—they must decide if it's closer to 5 or 13.

Natural Grouping: Tasks naturally cluster around Fibonacci numbers, making it easier to compare and estimate relative complexity.

Prevents Over-Estimation of Large Tasks: The gaps force teams to break down large stories (13+) into smaller, more manageable pieces.

Xamun's AI-Powered Story Point Estimation

While traditional teams spend hours in planning poker sessions, Xamun automates relative estimation using AI—delivering consistent, accurate story points in seconds.

Real Project Examples: Story Points in Action

Below are three different real projects showing how story points translate to actual deliverables per sprint. Each example demonstrates the relationship between estimated complexity and expected outcomes.

Project Example 1

Project Example 1: Feature breakdown with Fibonacci-based story points showing expected deliverables per sprint (e.g., 13-point features vs 5-point features)

Project Example 2

Project Example 2: Different project showing how story points are distributed across features and what can be delivered within a sprint budget

Project Example 3

Project Example 3: Another project example demonstrating sprint capacity and the relationship between story points and actual feature delivery

How Xamun's Automated Estimation Works

1. Requirement Analysis

AI analyzes your requirements, breaking them into user stories and features

2. Complexity Assessment

Evaluates complexity, dependencies, and technical requirements for each story

3. Fibonacci Assignment

Automatically assigns Fibonacci-based story points using relative sizing

4. Velocity Tracking

Monitors team velocity and refines estimates based on actual delivery data

Predictable Output: Know Exactly What You're Getting

With automated story point estimation, Xamun xDD provides transparent, predictable pricing based on story points delivered per month. No surprises, no scope creep—just clear expectations.

Predictable Output: Know Exactly What You're Getting

Real Example: Your MVP typically needs: Simple MVP = 2-3 sprints × Core | Standard MVP =2-3 sprints × Growth

*take note that package pricing differs from one development partner to another, book a meeting with the Xamun Team to learn more*

Sprint Planning: You Control the Priorities

With story point-based planning, you decide what gets built first. Each sprint, you choose the feature set that fits your target story points—giving you maximum flexibility and control.

How Sprint Planning Works with Xamun xDD

1

Review Story Points

See all features with their story point estimates (e.g., Login: 3 pts, Dashboard: 8 pts)

2

Set Your Priorities

Rank features by business value—what matters most to your users or revenue?

3

Build Your Sprint

Select features that fit your sprint capacity (e.g., target 30 points for a 2-week sprint)

4

Team Delivers

The xDD team builds your selected features and delivers working software

Example: If you have a 30-point sprint budget, you might choose: User Registration (5 pts) + Payment Processing (13 pts) + Email Notifications (5 pts) + Admin Dashboard (8 pts) = 31 points total

Understanding Velocity: Real-World Delivery Patterns

Here's an important truth about software development: not every sprint delivers exactly the same number of story points. And that's perfectly normal and expected.

Why Sprint Velocity Varies

- Technical surprises: Hidden complexity discovered during development
- Dependencies: Waiting for third-party APIs, design approvals, or clarifications
- Team learning: New team members ramping up or new technologies being adopted
- Overestimation: Sometimes tasks are simpler than anticipated
- Underestimation: Sometimes tasks are more complex than estimated

Real-World Example: Starter Package (30 Point Target/Month)

Sprint 1

26

points

Sprint 2

34

points

Sprint 3

28

points

Sprint 4

32

points

Average

30

points

Individual sprints varied from 26 to 34 points, but over 2 months averaged exactly 30 points.

Real Cost Comparison: 6-Month MVP Project

Yes, velocity varies sprint-to-sprint. But averaging over months gives you predictable, reliable planning. This is far more accurate than:

❌ Time-based estimates that are always wrong
❌ Fixed-bid projects that hide overruns or cut scope
❌ Hourly billing with no delivery guarantees
Story point velocity that converges to reliable averages

It's not perfect, but it's the best approach available for predictable software delivery.

Customer Benefits of Sprint-Based Planning

You're in Control

Adjust priorities every sprint based on market feedback, customer needs, or business changes

Full Transparency

See exactly what you're getting before the sprint starts—no surprises or scope creep

Predictable Budget

Know your monthly cost upfront—plan features around your budget constraints

Fast Pivots

Change direction every 2 weeks if needed—no long contracts or commitment penalties

Traditional vs. Xamun Story Point Estimation

Traditional Manual Estimation

❌ Hours spent in planning poker sessions
❌ Inconsistent estimates between team members
❌ Biases and groupthink affect accuracy
❌ Re-estimation needed when team changes
❌ No historical data for accuracy improvement

Xamun Automated Estimation

✅ Instant story point generation in seconds
✅ 95%+ accuracy using AI analysis
✅ Objective, bias-free estimations
✅ Consistent estimates across all projects
✅ Continuous learning from delivery data

Ready to Experience Predictable Software Delivery?

Stop guessing timelines and budgets. With Xamun's automated story point estimation, you'll know exactly what you're getting, when you're getting it, and what it costs—before development even begins.

Frequently Asked Questions
about our AI-Native SDLC platform

1. What is Xamun.AI?

Xamun.AI is an AI-native SDLC platform that transforms business requirements into working software in just 2-4 weeks. Sometimes called AI-native SDLC platform, we enable large enterprises undergoing digital transformation to rapidly deploy custom software solutions without requiring technical expertise, while maintaining complete source code ownership and enterprise-grade quality.

2. Who is Xamun.AI designed for?

Enterprise Digital Transformation Teams: CIOs, CDOs, and digital transformation leaders at large enterprises who need to accelerate their digital initiatives.

However, it may also be used by early to growth-stage startups with funding who need to rapidly develop their product (without diverting resources to building large technical teams) as well as executives with clear business needs who require custom software solutions but lack technical teams.

3. How does Xamun.AI's AI-native SDLC differ from traditional development?

Xamun.AI reimagines the entire software development lifecycle (SDLC):

  • Our AI agents generate and optimize code at unprecedented speed

  • Your team will just review & refine AI output rather than designing & writing code from scratch

  • Projects are divided into optimal units for parallel development

  • Each unit (approximately 30 screens) is delivered in 2-3 weeks

  • This approach delivers 8-10x faster development speed compared to traditional methods

  • The result is approximately 35% lower cost compared to quality development shops in Asia

4. What kind of architecture does Xamun.AI use for custom mobile and web apps?

Xamun.AI builds applications using a micro-monolith cloud-native architecture. This approach:

  • Creates cohesive, self-contained application units (typically around 30 screens per unit)

  • Enables independent deployment and scaling

  • Maintains the simplicity of monolithic applications while providing the flexibility of microservices

  • Optimizes for both development speed and performance

  • Supports modern cloud deployment practices

5. How do you ensure quality at such high speeds using AI-native SDLC?

Quality is maintained through:

  • AI agents that consistently apply best practices and patterns

  • Expert human oversight at critical decision points

  • Automated testing integrated into the development process

  • The micro-monolith architecture that simplifies testing and validation

  • Standardized quality assurance processes for all units

6. How is Xamun.AI priced for enterprise software development projects?

Xamun.AI offers transparent, value-based pricing:

  • DesignStudio: $30 per project for instant specifications and prototypes. Xamun.AI also offers premium services that come with consultation sessions.

  • BuildStudio: On the average, approximately $40K (around 30 screens), with total project costbased on the software’s size and complexity. This includes all development, quality assurance, and initial deployment support, with no hidden costs or ongoing subscription fees. Optional add-ons such as maintenance, VAPT, etc. are also available.

  • BuildStudio: Starting in July 2025, Xamun.AI will also offer self-service subscription where users can build software on a pay-as-you-use credit system.

7. Can Xamun.AI handle large, enterprise-scale applications for digital transformation?

Definitely. Our structured approach scales efficiently forlarge enterprise applications:

  • Multiple units are developed in parallel to maintain speed

  • Each 30-screen unit is delivered in 2-3 weeks

  • Complex applications are broken down into manageable units

  • Integration between units follows standardized patterns

  • This approach has successfully delivered applications with hundreds of screens

8. How can enterprise teams or funded startups get started with Xamun.AI’s AI-native SDLC platform?

Enterprise teams and funded startups can begin in one of three ways:

  • Quick Start: Try our DesignStudio for $30 to generate full specifications and a functioning prototype/proof-of-concept

  • Book a Meeting: Schedule a 30-minute consultation focusing on your digital transformation goals and we can deep-dive into how we can help

9. How quickly can you start development after requirements are finalized?

With our AI-native SDLC approach and unit-based structure:

  • DesignStudio provides immediate specifications and prototypes

  • Development teams can be assigned within days, not weeks

  • The first unit typically begins development within a week of requirements approval

  • Parallel unit development starts as soon as unit boundaries are defined

  • This rapid mobilization is part of how we achieve 8-10x faster delivery

10. What technical results can we expect from Xamun.AI-built applications?

Xamun.AI delivers enterprise-grade technical results:

  • Clean, maintainable code that follows industry best practices

  • Optimized database design and query patterns

  • Responsive UI that works across devices

  • Comprehensive API documentation

  • Containerization-ready applications

Resources

How we compare to approaches to custom software development

Find out how Xamun stacks up vs traditional ground-up development, and how we compare to low-code/no-code and other AI-powered software development platforms

Learn More

How we do AI-native SDLC

Learn how Xamun leverages AI to improve the entire software development lifecycle for both startups and mid-sized companies

Learn More

Frequently Asked Questions on developing apps using AI

See what people are asking about Xamun and learn why we’re the best option out there for your custom software development needs

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Articles on AI-native SDLC

Read blogs on software development and how you can transform the traditional process through new technologies such as AI

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FREE eBooks on Startups, Digital Transformation and AI

Access free ebooks on accelerating digital transformation through various tools, including AI-augmented software development

Learn More

Glossary of Enterprise Digital Transformation and AI Terms

Browse through our collection of concepts and their definitions and build your proficiency in digital transformation and AI

Learn More

Find out more why Xamun.AI is a top AI-native SDLC platform

Choosing the right AI-Native SDLC platform can be confusing, let's meet so we can answer your most pressing questions! You can also inquire via email.

About Xamun
Xamun revolutionises how custom software is built through its AI-Native SDLC Platform. We seek to unlock innovations that have been long shelved or even forgotten by startup founders, mid-sized business owners, enterprise CIOs that have been scarred by failed development projects.

We do this by providing a single platform to scope, design, and build web and mobile software that uses AI agents in various steps across the entire software development lifecycle.

AI-powered software development mitigates risks in conventional ground-up software development and it is also a better alternative to no-code/low-code because we guarantee bug-free and scalable, enterprise-grade software - plus you get to keep the code in the end.

We make the whole experience of software development easier and faster, deliver better quality, and ensure successful launch of solutions for enterprise digital transformation.
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